In support of Mr Hockey’s lifespan and Medicare projections.

What I don’t understand is for someone who claims to love science when it comes to the climate change debate doesn’t have any grasp of statistics.

Okay Scottie, here’s a crash course.[1]

According to these figures, by 2050, the Australian dependency ratio will *double* from around 19% to 40% by 2050. That means, in regards to say Medicare (but pick your Government provided service, be it welfare or defence) there will be twice as many users as there will be payers.[2]

However if we look at Commonwealth spending projections from today going forward another ten years, in absolute spending terms, expenditure will double.

“Commonwealth expenditure on health is projected to nominally increase from about $65 billion in 2013-14 to $123 billion by 2023-24, or from around 4.1 per cent of GDP in 2013-14 to around 4.8 per cent by 2023-24. “[2]

of which the number of Australians over 65 will, to quote the report :

” . Between now and 2050, the proportion of Australians aged over 65 years or more is expected to almost quadruple (Australian Government, 2010). “[2]

These are the biggest consumers of healthcare as demographic & their numbers are expected to *quadruple*.

To summarise for the tl;dr crowd that inevitably clings to Greens social media: It means the number of people spending the Medicare dollar without contributing is expected to double, and the cohort of people expected to spend the most (those over 65) is expected to quadruple.. The amount of people aged over 81 is expected to increase fivefold.

A seven dollar co-pay was not a lot to ask to maintain our healthcare system. It’s an equitable user pays system. Sure, ideally all Australians should have access to tertiary education and universal healthcare. But we don’t because we can’t. Dental is a really good example of this. There’s a mischaracterisation of the Liberal party as attacking ‘universal healthcare’ , but we don’t have anything approaching universal dental healthcare.

The aggregate Left has shown it doesn’t want any new taxes to support healthcare. That, in effect, absolutely means no new dental schemes at all. The actual vision we have of “universal healthcare” isn’t in reality anything but universal. We already compromise on what Medicare can and cannot achieve – the choice was made decades ago that Medicare wouldn’t cover dental.

This is regardless of the fact that Bob Hawke attempted to introduce a co-pay scheme in 1991, before it was removed after Keating came to power. [8]

Now lets get to the lengthening human lifespan.

Geneticists and biochemists are already talking about and have developed in simpler organisms the ability to vastly improve the human lifespan.[4][5]

Even caloric restriction and some drug therapy has shown some serious promise in human clinical trials[6]

The number of people who live to be 100 years old as increased by 1004% in the last century and these trends here show that the human life expectancy increase on average by 3 months per year.[7]

In conclusions, it’s absurd to continually point to U.N climate change forecasts with one hand, and on the other completely denounce U.N demographic projections with the other.

It is disingenuous to make continual references to “the science” in regards to climate change, but then utterly ignore the leaps and bounds we have made in human biology in the last one hundred years.

This can only lead to the one of two conclusions that Senator Luddite either is incapable of interpreting any kind of projection for himself; or that he only chooses to refer to science on issues when it is politically expedient to do so.

The question I put to the Good Senator is: Which is it?

[1] http://www.economicshelp.org/blog/glossary/dependency-ratio/

[2]http://www.ncoa.gov.au/report/appendix-vol-1/9-3-pathway-to-reforming-health-care.html

[3]https://www.cis.org.au/images/stories/target30/t30.03.pdf

[4]http://io9.com/345728/geneticists-discover-a-way-to-extend-lifespans-to-800-years

[5]http://journals.plos.org/plosgenetics/article?id=10.1371/journal.pgen.0040013

[6]http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg22429894.000-everyday-drugs-could-give-extra-years-of-life.html#.VLzT1UeUfTg

[7]http://www.nia.nih.gov/research/publication/global-health-and-aging/living-longer

[8]http://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/FlagPost/2014/April/GP_co-payment_lessons_from_past








The Interview

There was a lot hype leading up to this movie given the Sony breaches and the diplomatic row between the United States and North Korea that has resulted. After watching it, it is not hard to see why; this is an out and out American propaganda film.

To say however that I did not totally enjoy it would be untrue. At times Rogen and Franco’s natural on screen chemistry shines through, and some of the jokes are exceedingly well delivered. That said, there are plenty of dick and fart jokes. The use of incontinence as gag wears pretty thing after a while though.

The production values at times are really slick; there are some great shots of countryside, the camera work is slick and the movie manages to take only a couple of sets and make it feel like it much more ‘open’ than it really is.

The issues start when we are introduced to Kim Jong-un. It is painfully obvious that this is an American propaganda film. Kim Jong un manages to charm Skylark almost instantly showing a predictably human side that before too long is revealed to all be an act. The attempts at showing us what makes North Korea so bad is tired repetitions of the worst of what we know about the DPRK. This isn’t unexpected – nobody would argue that North Korea is a highly enlightened progressive nation. But just as the character in the movie wants to show us the ‘true picture’ of North Korea – the film feels like what it is really showing us what the United States government wants us to see.

There seem like there were a number of opportunities to grant the movie a little depth; at one point KJU tries to talk about U.S incarceration statistics. The camera turns away to a graphic fight scene in the control even before that sentence is finished. It’s actually a particularly telling moment. Who are the U.S to accuse North Korea of running concentration camps when onein three African Americans have been or are likely to go to prison, may for non-violent offences. The irony of talking about how the DPRK is a violent regime whilst showing us tonnes of gun-porn & gore is either completely lost on the director; or what I felt more likely, edited out from the script before release.

It feels like at times that The Interview is trying to be more even handed or perhaps contrast the United States and North Korea more equivocally & that it’s been shut down in post production by the producers. At times characters seem to have moral dilemmas about killing a head of state and how this hasn’t worked out in the past. These concerns are hand waved away with stunning regularity and often even the shots where this dialogue takes place is cut short or gun fights are super imposed over the top. The irony of a film released of dubious subject matter to cries of ‘free speech’ engaging in blatant self-censorship doesn’t seem to be lost on the writers; it’s often only obliquely commented on.

The film feels like a character assassination piece. It’s strange that the movie almost is what is trying to be about – showing the world that Kim Jong-un isn’t a “God” but who in the target audience doesn’t already know that? It certainly seems aimed at creating a perception and image issue for the man. I can’t blame him for being pissed.

These aren’t the only issues with the script. The film regularly bends of backwards to be politically correct, especially in regards to women, negative and ignorant stereotypes of Asians abound. There are shitty accents, terrible impersonations of Asian speakers abound and the amount of English spoken by North Koreans is kind of astounding. It carries on this ‘celebration’ of African American culture that often feels more exploitative than anything. It often portrays North Koreans in a very one dimensional way; they are either eager to betray their country for the benefits of American style capitalism or violent megalomaniacs who secretly desire the fruits of American culture. If the film is not apologising for the United States, it’s celebrating it. Deep down, everybody we see wants to be good Americans, instead of ‘good North Koreans’ and those who don’t are one dimensionally evil.

This film is insidious in a lot of ways. It panders directly to an Americo-centric worldview. It’s portrayal of men borders on misandrist, all the male characters are seeking approval from father figures who didn’t care for them or are easily manipulated by their biological imperatives. The women are confident Mary-Sues who whilst engaging in deceptive conduct, are in it for the ‘greater good’. It’s propaganda and apologism at the same time; that’s no reason not to watch it but you should be aware that it is what it is. The thing that scares me about this movie is that it does seem like Rogen was really trying to pull away from that and for whatever reason, was overruled. I might be wrong on that count; but the attempts of the film to pull back from the precipice of nationalistic propaganda fail, and it goes right over the cliff.

Octopus News roundup

Straight from the RGI Media Centre here is the RGI Quarterly Octopus RoundUp.

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-23708753

Lady from UK talks about she plays with fire by ‘entertaining’ the dreaded octopus.

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/giant-octopus-brings-central-london-3639435

A graven image of the cult of the octopus unveiled in London earlier last month.

http://www.theguardian.com/science/2014/may/15/octopus-suckers-arms-chemical-skin

The dreaded ‘pus is known to have some kind of distributed, terrible, intelligence. This cephalopologist piece from the Guardian does discuss in detail the sucking mechanism on the fell tentacles on the octopus.

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/12/091214121953.htm

Octopuses beginning to develop armoured vehicles from coconuts.

http://www.underseahunter.com/n28/deepsee-discovers-rare-pelagic-octopus.html#.U7dAS_mSx8E

More description moste foul of the deep sea cephalopods; terrible beyond all sanity. View at your own risk, lest ye go mad with terror.

Bronie

Just saw a forty year old “working class” gentleman wearing a well kept “my little pony” shirt. Unironically. It was one pony being taught to play the cello by another pony.https://fbcdn-sphotos-d-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-prn2/1468734_10151761977311680_276739969_n.jpg